The ice cream market size is projected to reach US$ 138.55 billion by 2031 from US$ 97.94 billion in 2023. The market is expected to register a CAGR of 4.4% during 2023–2031. The increasing demand for dairy-free and vegan ice cream is likely to act as a key trend in the market. This growth is fueled by increased consumption in emerging markets, premiumization trends, and diversification into plant-based and functional ice creams.
Market Size and Growth Drivers
The expanding global ice cream market reflects evolving consumer preferences and demographic shifts. In particular, Asia-Pacific and North America are critical growth regions. Asia-Pacific dominates due to rising disposable incomes and increasing urbanization, while North America sees demand for premium, vegan, and lactose-free products increasing steadily.
Key drivers include:
- Growing health consciousness leading to demand for low-fat, low-sugar, and plant-based ice cream alternatives.
- Innovative flavor introductions such as salted caramel, peanut butter, botanical, and floral notes to attract adventurous consumers.
- The rise of premium and super-premium segments emphasizing high-quality ingredients and unique textures.
- Increasing online and direct-to-consumer sales channels facilitating broader market reach.
- Enhanced cold chain logistics improving shelf life and product availability globally.
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Trends Impacting the Market
Innovation is central to the ice cream market’s vibrancy. Industry players increasingly focus on functional ice creams enriched with proteins, vitamins, and minerals catering to health-conscious buyers. Plant-based ice creams, using almond, soy, oat, or pea milk, are rapidly gaining market share due to lactose intolerance concerns and environmental sustainability interests.
Sustainability initiatives are reshaping packaging and sourcing, with rising consumer preference for clean-label, ethically produced products. The use of natural ingredients and avoiding artificial additives or preservatives is becoming standard.
Another notable trend is indulgence with well-being balance consumers seek permissible treats that can relieve stress yet fit into healthier lifestyles. This is boosting demand for nutrient-enhanced, lower calorie, or sugar-free variants without compromising on taste.
Market Segmentation and Consumer Insights
- Dairy-based ice cream remains the largest segment by type, accounting for over 96% of market revenue in 2023; however, the vegan segment is growing at a CAGR around 9.7% reflecting the shift to plant-based diets.
- Retail channels dominate distribution, constituting close to 79% of revenue, supported by the rise in convenience stores, supermarkets, and grocery chains.
- Impulse formats like cones, sandwiches, and popsicles continue to attract younger consumers, while take-home tubs are favored for family consumption.
- Premium and gourmet ice cream markets are growing significantly, with the global gourmet segment expected to expand at over 15% CAGR during 2025-2029, led by regions like the US, Europe, and China.
Challenges and Opportunities
Despite positive growth, the ice cream market faces challenges such as raw material price volatility, especially for dairy and flavoring ingredients affected by international tariffs. This has impacted price stability in leading markets like the US. Seasonal demand fluctuations also require efficient supply chain and inventory management.
Opportunities lie in expanding into untapped rural markets, leveraging digital platforms for personalized consumer engagement, and continuous product innovation focusing on health, indulgence, and ethical considerations. Collaborations across technology, food science, and sustainability are creating new avenues for competitive advantage.
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