EV
New Delhi, India, 04 September 2025– BYD has cut its 2025 sales target, reacting to fierce competition and weakening consumer demand in China. The automaker now aims to sell 4.6 million vehicles, down from its earlier 5.5 million forecast, a 16% reduction.
Company leaders shared the new figure internally last month with departments and suppliers, realigning production expectations. BYD has not confirmed the change publicly, but the internal update reveals how shifting market forces are reshaping the company’s growth strategy.
This move comes amid pressure from falling profits. BYD reported a 30% drop in quarterly earnings, marking its first profit decline in over three years. Following this, Deutsche Bank lowered its projection to 4.7 million, while Morningstar now expects 4.8 million units this year.
Despite the cut, BYD still anticipates selling more vehicles than last year’s 4.3 million units, which would represent 7% growth. However, the pace has clearly slowed. Between 2020 and 2024, BYD saw sales surge nearly tenfold, growth that now appears to be tapering off.
One major factor behind the new sales outlook is stronger domestic competition, especially in the lower-priced EV segment. Rivals like Geely Auto and Leapmotor continue expanding, aggressively targeting buyers who once preferred BYD’s affordable models.
Geely, in particular, increased its 2025 goal to 3 million units, up from 2.71 million. Meanwhile, BYD’s production declined for two consecutive months through August, something that hasn’t happened since 2020. This slowdown closely tracks a rising price war and softening demand.
BYD previously thrived by producing most components in-house. That vertical integration helped reduce costs and speed up innovation. Today, however, competitors are replicating that strategy, narrowing BYD’s long-held edge in manufacturing.
At the same time, China’s broader economic situation is squeezing the auto market. Deflation, combined with a weakened property sector, continues to erode consumer confidence. With household spending down, buyers are delaying major purchases, including EVs.
BYD’s lower-priced vehicles have been hit hardest. In July, models priced below 150,000 yuan (roughly $21,000) saw sales fall 9.6% year-on-year. In contrast, Geely’s sales in that price bracket rose 90%, highlighting a shift in buyer preferences.
BYD responded by scaling back production and delaying planned expansions at multiple factories across China. According to sources familiar with the matter, executives asked suppliers to reduce parts shipments in line with the updated target.
Although the company hasn’t made an official announcement, its recent operational decisions clearly reflect a more conservative stance. With the fourth quarter approaching, BYD appears to be steering toward stability rather than chasing aggressive growth.
Industry analysts remain divided on what this shift means. Some view it as a healthy reset in an increasingly crowded market. Others believe it signals deeper structural issues, such as declining margins and a loss of pricing power.
Ultimately, BYD’s response will determine whether it can maintain its leadership. The company’s past success relied heavily on strong demand and limited competition. Now, both of those dynamics are changing rapidly.
The automaker must also revisit its long-term strategy. Adjusting targets won’t be enough if BYD hopes to remain dominant in a maturing and highly competitive sector.
So far, BYD’s leadership has remained silent on the revised outlook. However, their actions, slowing production, delaying expansions, and recalibrating supplier orders, indicate a deliberate shift in strategy. This isn’t just about numbers; it’s about preparing for a tougher market cycle.
As China’s EV industry transitions from explosive growth to steady competition, BYD’s next moves will be pivotal. The company’s ability to adapt to economic shifts, rival pressure, and evolving consumer behavior will define its long-term standing.
Right now, the company seems less focused on breaking records and more interested in preserving margins and market share. That’s a smart move, especially in an environment where flexibility may matter more than speed.
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